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☆ Treasury yields fall as investors consider Fed policy path
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last over one basis point lower to 4.8095%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors considered the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy following the latest economic data and remarks from central bank officials. In recent weeks, expectations have moved toward there being fewer rate cuts in 2024 than previously expected, or even none. Barkin's comments came after a weaker-than-expected April jobs report released at the end of last week had buoyed hopes about rate cuts. More Fed policymakers are slated to make remarks throughout the week, which investors will be watching closely for additional hints about the policy outlook.

Persons: Tom Barkin Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Richmond Federal, Fed

☆ Premarket stocks: Why it’s not all doom and gloom for commercial real estate
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.

Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, —, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, “, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States

☆ The US economy is so strong that there might not be any rate cuts in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Now, some economists think the Fed won’t cut interest rates at all this year. “The Fed will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer,” he added. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. In some ways, the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed undermined their efforts to actually cut the rates. Still, about half of investors are expecting an interest rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: —, that’s, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, “, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, ” Robert Frick, ”, Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, Fed, National Federation of Independent, Investors, Financial Services, Senate Locations: New York, Richmond

☆ Fed’s Barkin: March rate cut isn’t out of the picture. ‘You make the call when you get to the meeting’
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The positive economic developments as well as Fed officials’ forecasts for at least three rate cuts this year had investors eying a March pivot. Meanwhile, Barkin — who will also be voting on Fed policy decisions at meetings this year — isn’t ruling March out entirely. For Barkin, “the breadth of inflation settling” and “the consistency of inflation settling” matter in his evaluation of whether the inflation rate is approaching the Fed’s target. Unlike many Fed officials, Barkin does not have a PhD in economics but has an MBA and a law degree. Investors will be paying close attention to any hints of the timing of rate cuts in the central bank’s latest statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Persons: Tom Barkin, Barkin, eying, Christopher Waller, “, Loretta Mester, Barkin —, isn’t, ” Barkin, ”, ” ‘ There’s, John Williams, Jerome Powell, Williams, “ There’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Richmond Federal, CNN, Fed, Cleveland Fed, FactSet, Richmond Fed, McKinsey, ” New York Fed, Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, That’s Locations: New York

☆ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin: Disconnect between consumer data and what I hear on the ground
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRichmond Fed President Tom Barkin: Disconnect between consumer data and what I hear on the groundRichmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin joins CNBC at the CFO Council Summit to discuss the state of the consumer, the extent to which Barkin expects an economic slowdown, and current economic forces that will bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target.

Persons: Tom Barkin, Thomas Barkin, Barkin Organizations: Richmond Federal, CNBC

☆ Fed's Barkin says rate hikes are still on the table if inflation doesn't continue to ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday that policymakers need to retain the option of raising interest rates if inflation doesn't show enough progress coming down. But Barkin said he's not ready to commit to a particular policy path with so much uncertainty in the air. "But if inflation is going to flare back up, I think you want to have the option of doing more on rates," Barkin added. The Fed's preferred inflation measure of core personal consumption expenditures showed a 12-month rate of 3.7% in September and is expected to show a slightly lower reading in October. However, Barkin called the possibility of easing policy "a forecasting question" that he's not ready to answer.

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, he's, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Christopher Waller, he'd, it's, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Richmond Federal, CNBC, Commerce Department, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Market

☆ Dollar falls to 2-1/2 month low on Fed expectations, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500's best week of 2023: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-05 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. equity futures were flat on Sunday evening after the major averages capped their best week so far this year. S&P 500 futures ticked higher by 0.03% and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered below the flat line at 0.01%. November is the best-performing month for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Traders' Almanac. The S&P 500 has generated an average return of 7% from November through April since then, he said. Several other Fed officials are making public remarks later in the week as well, including New York Federal Reserve President and CEO John Williams, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

Persons: Dow, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Walt Disney, Wynn, Jerome Powell, Bharat Ramamurti, CNBC's, Lisa D, Cook, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Thomas Barkin, Lorie Logan Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Stock Traders, MGM Resorts, Occidental Petroleum, National Economic Council, New York Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Richmond Federal, Dallas Fed Locations: Horton, Atlanta, Richmond

☆ Deaths haunt Corporate America via labor strikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

United Auto Workers union President Shawn Fain joins UAW members who are on a strike, on the picket line at the Ford Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Michigan, U.S., September 15, 2023. Manufacturing plants in Wentzville, Missouri, Wayne, Michigan and Toledo, Ohio will be empty as Ford Motor (F.N), General Motors (GM.N), and Stellantis (STLAM.MI) try to reach an agreement with the United Auto Workers collective bargaining committee. Deaths among the demographic that make up the workforce in the transportation sector are partly putting pressure on the problem. Follow @BenWinck on XCONTEXT NEWSThe United Auto Workers union started simultaneous strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis on Sept. 15 after last-minute labor negotiations failed to result in a deal. Pilots organized with the Air Line Pilots Association rejected a tentative labor deal with Fedex on July 24.

Persons: Shawn Fain, Rebecca Cook, they’re, Alan Krueger, walkouts, it’s, “, Darren Hawkins, Sean O’Brien, Lauren Silva Laughlin, Sharon Lam Organizations: United Auto Workers, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Ford, General Motors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, White, Richmond Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, United Airlines, Sensible, Pilots, Air Line Pilots Association, Fedex, Delta Air Lines, International Brotherhood of Teamsters, of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: Wayne , Michigan, U.S, Wentzville , Missouri, Toledo , Ohio

☆ Existing home sales see slowest July pace since 2010
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExisting home sales see slowest July pace since 2010CNBC's Diana Olick and Rick Santelli report on existing home sales and news from Richmond Federal Reserve.

Persons: Diana Olick, Rick Santelli Organizations: Richmond Federal Reserve

☆ Morning Bid: World markets bounce at last
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The onshore yuan steadied amid supportive action by China's state banks in the swaps market, and Chinese stocks (.CSI300) perked up from the year's lows. Overall, MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD00000PUS) was on course on Tuesday for its first back-to-back daily gains of August so far. There were background concerns about the impact on U.S. banks of this latest hit to bond prices and borrowing rates. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Xi Jinping, MSCI's, Jackson, Jerome Powell's, Moody's, Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Cyril Ramaphosa, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, P, Activision, Ubisoft Entertainment, Microsoft, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Federal, Chicago Fed, China's, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Wyoming, Jackson, China, South Africa, Asia, Johannesburg, Pretoria

“It’s really relative to just pricing against bond yields”, said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. Eight of the eleven main S&P 500 sectors declined, with more interest rates sensitive Utilities(.SPLRCU) and Real Estate (.SPLRCR) leading losses, dropping 2.3% and 1.4% respectively. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Second-quarter earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are now expected to fall 5% from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 88 new lows.

Persons: “ It’s, Tom Hainlin, …, Thomas Barkin, Brendan McDermid, Echo Wang, Shubham Batra, Bansari, Anil D'Silva, David Gregorio Our Organizations: PayPal, Qualcomm, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Labor Department, Investors, Richmond Federal, Dow Jones, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, PayPal Holdings, Spirit Airlines, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Minneapolis, U.S, New York City, New York, Bengaluru

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Earnings are also in focus, with Apple (AAPL.O) and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) due to report quarterly results after market close. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.08-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.28-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 37 new highs and 63 new lows. Reporting by Shubham Batra and Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Quincy Krosby, Thomas Barkin, advancers, Shubham Batra, Bansari, Anil D'Silva Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Moderna, PayPal, Qualcomm, Dow, Nasdaq, LPL, Richmond Federal, Dow Jones, Apple, PayPal Holdings, Spirit Airlines, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Richmond, Bengaluru

☆ Fed's Barkin: Inflation still too high, hopes recent data is 'a sign'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A man arranges produce at Best World Supermarket in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, D.C., U.S., August 19, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File photo(Reuters) - U.S. inflation remains too high, although recent readings showing price pressures have eased notably were welcome, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday. “Certainly, last month’s inflation read was a good one and I hope it is a sign,” Barkin said in remarks prepared for a speech in Virginia. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index - was up 3% year-over-year in June, down from 7% a year earlier. Barkin’s prepared remarks focused largely on whether a recession is imminent.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Thomas Barkin, ” Barkin, Barkin, Barkin’s Organizations: Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Richmond Federal, Fed Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Virginia, U.S

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Fitch's action hit the appetite for risky assets on Wednesday, dragging Wall Street sharply lower as investors took the opportunity to book profits on five months of gains. Earnings are also in focus as Apple and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) are due to report quarterly results after market close. Qualcomm (QCOM.O) tumbled 8.4% in trading before the bell as the San Diego, California-based company's fourth-quarter sales forecast fell below market expectations. Meanwhile, Moderna(MRNA.O) gained 3.3% as the company raised its annual forecast for COVID-19 vaccine sales to up to $8 billion.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Karen Reichgott Fishman, Goldman Sachs, Thomas Barkin, Peers, Shubham Batra, Bansari, Anil D'Silva Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Moderna, PayPal, Qualcomm, Dow, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Richmond Federal, Dow e, Peers Nvidia, Intel, PayPal Holdings, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, San Diego , California, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius

[1/3] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. "Core inflation is not coming down like I thought it would," Federal Reserve Gov. The U.S. economy was "still ripping along for the most part," he said, with the underlying pace of price increases "moving sideways." The Fed this week ended its run of 10 consecutive rate hikes when policymakers decided to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of from 5% to 5.25%. Though Fed chair Jerome Powell at a press conference Wednesday said no decision had been made about the upcoming July Fed meeting, investors and other analysts broadly expect the Fed to resume rate increases.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger WASHINGTON, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, I’m, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Chizu Nomiyama, Alistair Bell Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Richmond Federal, Fed, Chicago Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Norway, Silicon, U.S, Maryland

[1/3] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerWASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials struck a hawkish tone in their first comments since the central bank held the policy interest rate steady at its meeting this week but signaled that rate hikes will likely resume. "Core inflation is not coming down like I thought it would," Federal Reserve Gov. The U.S. economy was "still ripping along for the most part," he said, with the underlying pace of price increases "moving sideways." Though Fed chair Jerome Powell at a press conference Wednesday said no decision had been made about the upcoming July Fed meeting, investors and other analysts broadly expect the Fed to resume rate increases.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger WASHINGTON, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, I’m, Jerome Powell, Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Richmond Federal, Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Norway, Silicon, U.S, Maryland

WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin said Friday he is comfortable with further interest rate increases if coming data does not show that weakening demand for goods and services is feeding through to slower inflation. "I am still looking to be convinced of the plausible story that slowing demand returns inflation relatively quickly" to the 2% target, Barkin said in comments prepared for delivery to the Maryland Government Finance Officer Association. Many investors now expect the central bank to resume rate increases at its meeting in July. But he did say the focus remained on returning "stubbornly persistent" inflation to the Fed's 2% target, from a current level more than twice that. "The ’70s provides a clear lesson: If you back off inflation too soon, inflation comes back stronger, requiring the Fed to do even more, with even more damage," Barkin said.

Persons: Thomas Barkin, Barkin, I’m, Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: Richmond Federal, Maryland Government, Association, Thomson Locations: U.S

WASHINGTON, June 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is strong amid robust consumer spending but some areas are slowing down, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday, adding that she expects continued progress in bringing inflation down over the next two years with a strong labor market. Yellen said that inflation can subside while maintaining a strong labor market, with unemployment in the 4% range, up slightly from the 3.7% reading in May. "We've always thought an unemployment rate with four as the first digit is a very strong labor market," Yellen said. She said the economy has slowed somewhat, easing pressures in the labor market, but "we still have a very healthy labor market, wage gains are significant." Asked about former Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker's view that the federal funds rate, at 5.0-5.25% now, will have to rise to 6% to tame inflation, Yellen said that was a decision for the Fed.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, We've, Jeffrey Lacker's, David Lawder, Susan Heavey, Doina Chiacu, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, CNBC, Federal, Richmond Federal, Securities and Exchange Commission, European Union, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Debt vote in sight, but further Fed squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Visitors walk on the plaza at the U.S. Capitol in the midst of ongoing negotiations seeking a deal to raise the United States' debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default, in Washington, U.S. May 24, 2023. Relief over the likely lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling this week is being reined in by the uncomfortable prospect of even higher Federal Reserve interest rates - and the further evaporation of any 2023 easing hopes. Futures markets now see a 60% chance the Fed will lift rates by another quarter point to the 5.25-5.50% range at its June 14 meeting. Though largely illiquid out of U.S. hours, one-month Treasury bill yields were marked about 10 basis points higher than Friday's close. U.S. stock futures were about 0.5% higher, in part due to relief over the debt deal - even though, unlike the latest big debt ceiling standoff in 2011, there has been little noticeable disturbance in stock indices over the past month.

☆ Dow, S&P edge up as data, debt ceiling curb gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 47.98 points, or 0.14%, to 33,348.6, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.2 points, or 0.30%, to 4,136.28 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 80.47 points, or 0.66%, to 12,365.21. Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) climbed 2.16% as one of the top boosts to both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 after Loop Capital upgraded it to "buy" from "hold." Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidIn a relatively light week for economic data, investors will focus on retail sales, weekly jobless claims and housing data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 59 new highs and 136 new lows.

Barkin said he remained open-minded on whether the Fed at its June 13-14 policy meeting should raise the benchmark policy rate for an 11th straight time or leave it at the current range between 5.00% and 5.25%. I do wonder whether we're not going to need more impact on demand to bring inflation down to where we need to go," Barkin said, laying out a potential case for further rate increases. Barkin said he is comfortable overall with the Fed's move earlier this month to a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach after having raised the policy rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022 in an effort to lower the highest inflation in 40 years. "I'm still seeing data that suggests a hot job market and enduring inflation," he said. "I continue to believe that inflation will last longer than perhaps market measures of inflation compensation would suggest.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks calm the horses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. banking giants calm the horses, global investors are now concentrated on world growth and earnings signals more than interest rate rises for direction - with an assumption the latter are near an end anyway. Somewhat relieved analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago. Futures markets now see a more than 80% chance the Fed will execute one final quarter point rate rise next month - reversing it by September. That rate rise would bring the real Fed policy rate - adjusted by headline consumer price inflation - into positive territory for the first time in three years. The dollar extended Friday's rebound as the May rate rise pricing hardened.

☆ Fed's Barkin says he could see rates at 5.5%-5.75%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PALO ALTO, California, March 3 (Reuters) - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that he could envision a scenario where the central bank pushes the U.S. benchmark policy interest rate to the 5.5%-5.75% range that some in financial markets are now betting it will. Barkin said it's "entirely possible" that inflation cools faster than he expects, which would imply a shallower rate path. "But I think it's entirely possible that it persists, which would require us to do more," he added. By this time next year, Barkin said, he does not expect the Fed to have started any rate cuts. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Leslie Adler and Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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